Dr. Christian J. Feldbacher-Escamilla

February 01, until July 31, 2024

Affiliation: University of Cologne

Research for a study about:

Rudolf Carnap, the Problem of Induction, and the Explicative Methodology

In Rudolf Carnap's examination of the inductive methodology of science, he challenged the idea that the justification of inductive methods is inherently at odds with logical empiricism, as it relies on an allegedly synthetic a priori assumption of uniformity. Carnap offered a logical alternative to frequentist probability, advocating for a probabilistic approach to uniformity, with the goal of classifying all probabilistic statements as analytical within inductive logic. By this, he suggested to salvage logical empiricism. It is, however, well-known that Carnap's rational reconstruction of the scientific methodology has shortcomings and gaps. This project examines the problem of deriving a relevant probabilistic statement about uniformity that can be cashed out also for justifying inductive methods within logical and information theoretical accounts. As we will argue, meta-probabilistic reasoning is necessary in order to apply Carnap’s solution to the traditional problem of induction. However, such reasoning seems to trigger an infinite regress. We will investigate whether Carnap’s general methodological suggestions with respect to applying an explicative methodology can help to overcome this problem at the meta-probabilistic level.